Oil Energy Now And in The Future by Zheyi Sun '07

Petroleum/Crude oil is a thick liquid consisting of hundreds of combustible hydrocarbons with some sulfur, oxygen, and nitrogen. Identified global reserves could last 53 years at the current consumption rate, and 42 years if the usage rate increases by 2% per year. Undiscovered oil might add an extra 20-40 years to the identified sources.
Some countries are extremely dependent on the U.S. consumer markets. Countries such as Venezuela exports 44% of their oil to us; Nigeria exports 55%, Mexico 92%, Canada virtually 100%.

There is a commonly held belief that the world’s supply of oil will last until about 2040. A growing number of senior oil industry geologists and analysts are starting to challenge this belief publicly. They believe the number is grossly optimistic, and dangerously misleading. Problems exist in the oil industry. The 2040 number fails to take into account things such as inactive reserves, which are oil that exists but cannot be produced with today’s technology at a profit. It essentially takes a barrel of oil to produce a barrel of oil. There are also non-existent oil that is reported by government agencies of political purposes, when they report more oil then they really have. Lastly, reserve figures from active oil-producing countries sometimes do not change from year to year, thereby misleading the world about the amount of oil they have left.
The current rate of consumption by the world is growing at dangerous levels. A seemingly modest 7% growth rate still results in a doubling of consumption every ten years. Oil consumption in the developing world is currently skyrocketing.

Oil provides 40% of the energy in industrial countries. It is especially critical for agriculture, transportation, and the chemical industry. To a significant degree, oil is the engine that has driven the tremendous growth in human population. Humans have searched for oil for over 100 years. Until 1962, the rate at which we discovered oil was an upward curve. But since 1962 the discovery of new oil deposits has been in a steady decline. When the OPEC embargo of 1973 sent prices up sharply, there was a huge increase in exploration activities. We literally looked all over the Earth, looking for new oil. However, even with all the latest technology, relatively little new oil was found.

As of now, there are no practical replacements to replace oil with another fuel supply. This will adversely affect things such as transportation, the food industry, and chemical manufacturing. Here are several examples and why they are not practical.

1) Liquid Petroleum gas- it’s supply cannot be increased, it is a non-renewable fossil resource.
2) Compressed natural gas- gets one fourth the driving range per tank full. It is also a non-renewable fossil resource. When oil runs out, gas reserves will be quickly depleted.
3) Making methanol from biomass is even more expensive then making it from natural gas or unrefined gasoline.
4) Making ethanol requires more energy input than is contained in the finished end product.
5) Fuel cells are not currently an economically practical alternative, and may never be.
6) Hydrogen technology is still decades away from being affordable, and starting to look like it may never be.

For the long term future, there are only three potential sources of energy; nuclear, coal, and the sun. The problem is not that we are going to run out of oil; the problem is that the demand for oil will soon exceed the supply of oil. An alternative is to force the government to impose high taxes on gasoline and oil related products, forcing people to reduce their consumption.